Weekly Weather Watch – 12 October, 2021

Welcome to this week’s OU Nightly Weekly Weather Watch!  

Norman, OK 

The weather this week for Norman, Oklahoma, will be a roller coaster.  Yesterday evening, October 10, 2021, most of downtown Norman was placed under severe thunderstorm warnings as well as a tornado warning.  This supercell brought heavy rainfall, golf ball sized hail, gusty winds up to 57 mph, and luckily no confirmed tornadoes.  Later this week, Norman, Oklahoma, will once again deal with potential severe weather overnight Tuesday, October 12, 2021, into Wednesday, October 13, 2021.  This severe weather will mostly stay around the northwest portion of the state but severe storms cannot be ruled out for the Norman area.  However, the weather for the rest of the week looks to calm down and cool down.  High temperatures will be in the mid 70s, so the rest of this week looks to be gorgeous. 

Quiet Week in the Tropics 

This week looks to be an even quieter week in the tropics when compared to last week for the United States.  There are a couple areas of potential development in the Gulf of Mexico and one tropical storm in the Eastern Pacific Ocean.   According to the National Hurricane Center, the first system is “located about 200 miles east of the Winward Islands” but does not look to develop further into a tropical system.  The chance of formation is low around 10 percent. 

Another area of potential development is located south of Hispaniola and follows the same general life cycle as the other system.  However, according to the National Hurricane Center, this system will bring “locally heavy rainfall…over portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola.” The chance of this system forming into a tropical system is low around 20 percent. 

Over in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Pamela is churning just off the west coast of Mexico.  This storm is expected to intensify into a major hurricane by midweek and make landfall on Wednesday, October 13, 2021.  According to the National Hurricane Center, this system will bring “life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds” as well as the threat of “significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.” 

Fire Weather In California and Colorado 

The majority of central California is still dealing with wildfires and prime conditions for further wildfire development.  According to the National Weather Service office in Sacramento, California, a Red Flag Warning is in effect until the evening of Tuesday, October 12, 2021, with gusty winds up to 50 mph in places and very low humidity values.   

The southeast corner of Colorado is also under a Red Flag Warning with the same general threats of gusty winds and low humidity values.  According to the National Weather Service office in Pueblo, Colorado, the Red Flag Warning is in effect for “strong winds, low relative humidity, dry fuels, and lightning.” 

Winter Weather Arrives for the Northern Rockies 

The time of year has arrived for winter weather to make its chilly appearance in the Northern Rocky Mountains.  Most of Wyoming, southwestern Montana, and eastern Idaho are under a Winter Storm Warning until midday Wednesday.  According to the National Weather Service, this winter storm will bring heavy snowfall with “total snow accumulations of 10 to 15 inches on the west slopes, and 12 to 24 inches on the east slopes” and winds gusting up to 45 mph.  The National Weather Service also suggests to have supplies, such as flashlights, food, and water, with anyone traveling during this storm. 

Severe Weather Chances 

The nation is getting ready for more severe weather early this week.  For Tuesday, October 12, 2021, the northwest Panhandle of Oklahoma and the southwest corner of Kansas will be dealing with severe thunderstorms and the possibility of tornadoes.  According to the Storm Prediction Center, “there is a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms [in] northeast Texas Panhandle, far northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle, and southwest Kansas.” The National Weather Service predicts that there may be “scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms” late this afternoon and peaking in the overnight hours for portions of Oklahoma and Kansas.  From the SPC forecast discussion, “several tornadoes…along with destructive hail and wind are possible.”  With the threat of severe weather, it is advised to have multiple ways to receive warnings if a severe thunderstorm or tornado is expected to hit your home.   

For the rest of this week, the severe weather potential decreases dramatically across the United States.  Rain from Tropical Storm Pamela will track to the northeast across the southeast United States, but none to very little severe weather is expected from this system. 

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