Weekly Weather Watch – 4 October, 2021

Welcome to this week’s OU Nightly Weekly Weather Watch!  

Norman, OK 

This week in Norman, Oklahoma, will be filled with lots of sunshine and warm temperatures.  Tuesday and Wednesday, October 5 and 6, 2021, will be slightly cooler than the rest of the week with highs in the upper 70s.  However, the rest of the week will return to temperatures in the upper to mid 80s with lows in the low to mid 60s.  On Sunday, October 10, 2021, there is a small chance of severe thunderstorms.  The severity of these thunderstorms is still unknown due to the timeframe, but be sure to tune into OU Nightly for all the latest severe weather updates as they come in. 

Calmer Week in the Tropics 

Tropical storm development has seemed to hit a lull this week with only one hurricane, one area of remnants, and one area of disturbance.  What was once Major Hurricane Sam is now just a Category 2 hurricane that is moving northeast around 30 miles per hour.  According to the National Hurricane Center, by Tuesday, October 5, 2021, Hurricane Sam is expected to become “a powerful post-tropical cyclone.”  

The remnants of Tropical Storm Victor are expected to completely fade away this week.  According to the National Hurricane Center, Victor will degenerate “into a trough over the Central Atlantic” and that there will be no more advisories posted for Victor. 

Closer to the United States, there is a “large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers” over the southeastern Bahamas, according to the National Hurricane Center.  However, upper levels winds will lead to the deterioration of favorable conditions for significant tropical cyclone development. This system of storms will try to work its way northwestward this week before turning out to sea.  The National Hurricane Center forecasts the formation of tropical systems over the next five days to be around 10 percent. 

Fire Weather Expanding Outside the West Coast 

As the West Coast deals with destructive wildfires, other locations are preparing for potential popup wildfires.  According to the Storm Prediction Center, the Pacific Northwest, the northern Great Basin, northern Rockies, and northern High Plains have “elevated fire-weather concerns” for Monday, October 4, 2021, and Tuesday, October 5, 2021.  Gusty winds, warm temperatures, and low humidity values will make for ideal conditions for wildfire formation. 

Severe Weather Chances 

Severe weather potential for the United States looks rather low through the early portions of the week.  According to the Storm Prediction Center, “strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur across the Mid-Atlantic States/Delmarva this afternoon evening.”  In the Mid-Atlantic States have strong to marginally severe storms Monday, October 4, 2021, evening with the main threats being gusty winds and small hail.  In the middle Gulf Coast states including Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, a broad area of increased thunderstorm initiation is expected Monday, October 4, 2021, afternoon.  If these storms pop up, the main threats will be gusty winds, small hail, and a tornado or two.  On the other coast of the United States in southern California, thunderstorms may develop overnight Monday, October 4, 2021.  These storms may produce gusty winds and small hail. 

Looking towards the end of the week, Sunday, October 10, 2021, there is a chance of severe thunderstorms over the Midwest, including Oklahoma.  Since this chance of severe weather is nearly a week away, be sure to tune into OU Nightly this week to keep up to date on all changes regarding the weather. 

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