Weekly Weather Watch – 28 September, 2021

Welcome to this week’s OU Nightly Weekly Weather Watch!  

Norman, OK 

Grab those umbrellas and rain boots! It’s going to be a much needed rainy week in Norman, Oklahoma.  Monday the 27th and Tuesday the 28th will have warm temperatures with highs in the low 90s, and according to the National Weather Service, Tuesday’s high of 91°F is “roughly 10-15 degrees above average for late September.”  On Tuesday, September 28, 2021, a marginal risk for severe weather moves into the area.  If these storms pop up, they are expected to form over western Oklahoma during the afternoon.  Later on in the week, another system will push its way into Oklahoma.  A cold front will be moving in from Kansas on Thursday, September 30, 2021, which will bring lots of rain and cooler temperatures.  Many places could see up to two inches of rain this week along with average high temperatures of upper 70s for late September and early October in Oklahoma. 

Another Active Week in the Tropics 

The Atlantic Ocean is still churning out tropical systems, but luckily, most seem to be steering clear of the United States.  Major Hurricane Sam, located east of the Lesser Antilles, has strengthened into a Category 4 storm but will not impact the East Coast of the United States.  The remnants of Hurricane Peter have a good chance of reforming into another tropical system later this week.  However, according to the National Hurricane Center, if these storms do develop, it will be a “short-lived tropical depression.”  A broad area of low pressure southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has a favorable chance for tropical cyclone development this week.  The National Hurricane Center predicts this system to form into a tropical depression over the next five days.  Another tropical wave just off the coast of Africa has a strong chance of forming into a tropical depression as well.  This system is also predicted to form within the next five days. 

Fire Weather Expanding Outside the West Coast 

The West Coast is still dealing with devastating wildfires, but many other places are preparing for similar conditions.  According to the National Weather Service in Reno, Nevada,  the western side of Nevada is under a Red Flag Warning until early Tuesday, September 28, 2021, due to gusty winds and low humidity values.  Another Red Flag Warning is in effect for the southern side of Montana, the northeastern portion of Utah, the west side of South Dakota, and the southwest side of North Dakota.  According to the National Weather Service in Billings, Montana, hot and dry conditions are present for potential wildfire formation with warm temperatures, gusty winds, and low humidity values. 

Severe Weather Chances 

This week looks to be rather quiet when it comes to severe weather.  However, there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Monday, September 27, 2021, in southwest Texas and portions of Ohio and Pennsylvania.  According to the Storm Prediction Center, “marginally severe hail and wind gusts may occur late this afternoon/evening across southwest Texas, and isolated large hail may occur late tonight from eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania.” 

A much larger area of severe storms is possible on Tuesday, September 28, 2021.  According to the Storm Prediction Center, the regions of the mid-Atlantic and the southern Plains have a marginal risk for “isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing locally damaging gust and hail possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across parts of the Middle Atlantic vicinity and the southern Plains.” 

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