Welcome to this week’s OU Nightly Weekly Weather Watch!
The weather conditions in Oklahoma this week will be much nicer than weeks past with low humidity values. Our high temperatures will only reach the in the low-90s later in the week with nightly lows in the high 60s. However, a weak cold front will push its way through the Southern Plains on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning which will knock our high temperatures down to the high 80s for Wednesday. This cold front will bring a chance of storms to northern parts of the state. These warm conditions will stick around the rest of the week with high temperatures rising to the mid-90s.
Active Week in the Tropics
Tropical Storm Nicholas is currently forecasted to travel up the coast of southeast Texas bringing lots of rain to from Galveston Bay to Corpus Christi. According to the National Hurricane Center, “Nicholas moving erratically northward just offshore the southern coast of Texas…flash flooding, dangerous storm surge, and gusty winds expected along portions of the southern and middle Texas coasts today” (Tropical Storm Nicholas Public Advisory (noaa.gov)).
In the Atlantic Ocean, there are two disturbances that have a good chance of forming into tropical cyclones. The first disturbance is right off the East Coast of the United States, where an area of low pressure is forecasted to form over the next week. The chance of formation in the next two days is low at 10 percent but rises to 50 percent within the next five days. The second disturbance is located over the far eastern Atlantic by western Africa. This system has a much better chance of formation near the end of the week, with there being a 30 percent chance over the next two days but rises to 80 percent over the next five days.
Fire Weather in the West
Wildfires are still burning on the West Coast with no relief in sight. The smoke from these wildfires have made their way all the way across the United States, bringing hazy skies to the Midwest. There are three areas of elevated fire risk: one in central/southwest Kansas and northwest Oklahoma, central Idaho, and southern Nevada and southwestern Utah. Current observations show “widespread 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds ongoing across portions of the southern High Plains into the central Plains, which are expected to continue through the day. Clear skies will support boundary-layer mixing through the afternoon, with minimum RH around 15% by peak heating” (Sep 13, 2021 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook (noaa.gov)).
Severe Weather Chances
There is several days this week with chances of severe weather. For today, Tuesday, September 14, 2021, the slight chance of severe weather moves over to the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley. According to the Storm Prediction Center, “Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are possible Tuesday and Tuesday night from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley and Northeast States” (Storm Prediction Center Sep 13, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook (noaa.gov)).
On Wednesday, September 15, 2021, the upper Ohio River Valley has its turn for severe weather. According to the Storm Prediction Center, “Expect strong storm development to begin by early afternoon” (Storm Prediction Center Sep 13, 2021 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook (noaa.gov)).