Welcome to the first ever OU Nightly Weekly Weather Watch!
The weather conditions in Oklahoma this week are generally the same as last week — warm and muggy. Our high temperatures will remain in the mid-90s with nightly lows ranging from low 60s to low 70s. However, a weak cold front will push its way through the Southern Plains on Wednesday which will knock our high temperatures down to the high 80s. This cold front will also bring less humid conditions to most of the state. This sweet relief from the summer heat will be short-lived unfortunately, as the heat and humidity build up once again by Thursday afternoon.
Quieter Week in the Tropics
Though no active tropical systems are actively impacting the United States, hurricane season is still not over. Major Hurricane Larry is still churning over the Atlantic Ocean as a Category 3 hurricane, the third major hurricane of the 2021 season. This system will track its way towards Bermuda but will take a sharp right turn and head northeast over the next few days. Though Hurricane Larry is not expected to make landfall, the New England coastline will feel some of the impacts.
According to the National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center, “Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue affecting those shores through the end of the week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beach-goers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week.”
In the Gulf of Mexico, there is a small disturbance attempting to come together, but the conditions are unfavorable for strong development. This system with disorganized showers and thunderstorms will track northeast over the next few days, bringing rain to portions of Florida. As this disturbance tracks over the southeastern United States and onto the coastline, it could gain strength and develop into a tropical or subtropical system. However, the chance of this system developing over the next five days is low at 30 percent.
Fire Weather in the West
Wildfires are still burning on the West Coast with no relief in sight. A large area of high pressure will create a heat dome, where extremely warm temperatures are expected to form over southern California and Nevada. An Excessive Heat Warning is in place until 9 pm PDT Wednesday with “dangerously hot conditions with high temperatures of 105 to 110 degrees.” These hot conditions will not only fuel wildfires but also significantly increase the chance for heat related illnesses. (WWA Summary for Excessive Heat Warning (weather.gov)).
Severe Weather Chances
This week will be a rather quiet severe weather week. For Tuesday, September 7, 2021, a slight chance of severe thunderstorms is possible over parts of Michigan, Illinois, and Indiana. If storms develop, these storms will potentially bring “damaging winds, as well as isolated hail and a tornado or two” (Storm Prediction Center Sep 7, 2021 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (noaa.gov)). Portions of northern Oklahoma have a marginal chance of severe weather with the main threats being isolated strong thunderstorms.
On Wednesday, September 7, 2021, the marginal chance of severe weather moves over to the East Coast. This marginal risk extends from northern New York and Vermont down to North Carolina and over to the Atlantic coastline. According to the Storm Prediction Center, “strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic vicinity Wednesday afternoon and evening.” (Storm Prediction Center Sep 7, 2021 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook (noaa.gov))