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OUCovers16 Has Made Prediction for State Electoral Votes

By Gloria Noble | OUCovers16 Editor | @glorianoble_

OUCovers16 has complied a map that demonstrates our predictions for the General Election.

As a class, we agreed on the swing states to be:

  • Florida
  • Pennsylvania
  • North Carolina
  • Iowa
  • Texas
  • Utah
  • Ohio
  • Wisconsin
  • Georgia
  • Michigan
  • Arizona

While the list of swing states is longer than the rest of the projected swing states, there are voting trends that are not usual of the states voting history.

In Florida, we are seeing a close tie between Clinton and Trump. While we are projecting a Republican victory, while Clinton has led in the latest polls, Florida has voted for the Republican nominee consistently. It will be a matter of turnout in the Sunshine state, and if the Latino vote will go out for the Democratic candidate.

Pennsylvania does not allow early voting. Right now, there is no way of knowing how registered voters are going to cast their ballots, but Pennsylvania has been a Democrat-supporting state in past elections. With 20 electoral votes, this is going to be a must win for Hillary Clinton.

North Carolina could be seeing a change in the party stronghold in this election. With 15 electoral votes, we are projecting a Clinton victory in this east coast state.

Iowa is a toss up. Early voting has been going on since September 29th, but casting ballots early is not demonstrating what is happening in the Hawkeye state. While there are only si electoral votes, it is going to be a must win, because every electoral vote is going to count. Early voting is calculating voters registered party affiliation, but not the candidate voters are casting their ballots for. Therefore leaving it largely unknown what is happening in the first in the nation caucus state. Trump is leading by 3 points in the polls, with a three point margin of error. Barack Obama won the state in 2008 and 2012.

Texas could go blue this go round. While there is a large surge in the amount of early Latino voting in the 23rd Congressional District, which runs from El Paso to San Antonio, it is possible Latinos will mobilize in the larger cities like Houston. If they do vote in large numbers, the regular red state could see a hue of blue.

Utah could make history in 2016. A third party candidate has never won a state since the first Presidential Election with George Washington. Evan McMullin is seeing strong polling numbers at 28 percent on Sunday, with Clinton not far ahead of him. If Clinton tells her voters to cast for McMullin, a third party could take the state. If that happens, McMullin will make history.

Ohio is a must-win for either of the candidates with 18 electoral votes. While Ohio Gov. John Kasich dropped out of the race early, and did not support Trump,  now he is hoping to see his state turn red again.

Wisconsin is an interesting narrative. Speaker Paul Ryan calls Wisconsin home, but it does not mean that he is throwing all of his eggs in the Trump basket today. Ryan has said that he supports the Republican party, but has fought against Trump more than he has supported him. If the cheese state feels the same way that Ryan does, then maybe the cheese will turn blue.

Georgia averages about 40 percent African American for registered voters. Historical context and voting behavior tells us that African Americans more often than not vote Democrat. While it is more than likely they are going to vote for Clinton, it could have a surprise coming towards us.

Michigan is telling an interesting story. After the Flint Water Crisis, the Republican party is not talking about the EPA or the importance of water, whereas the Democratic party is talking about the importance of the environment.

Arizona has gone red in the last two elections, but with Trump’s rhetoric against immigration, there could be a rise in Latino mobilization that could make the state blue.

For continued coverage, please follow @ounightly on Twitter.

 

 

 

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